It is a measure of progress, in Turkey's long and fitful drive to full democracy, that there seems no chance that the military will step in as it has done whenever it felt the state was threatened. The party's leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is too popular, his message has been moderate and Turkey is eager to burnish its democratic credentials in the hope of joining the European Union.

But Turkey's so-called establishment ( the politicians, soldiers and judges who see themselves as the guardians of the state's sanctified secularism ) has worked hard to prevent the party from winning. Last month, the election board banned Mr. Erdogan from running, though he still campaigns as the party's popular face. Last week, the chief prosecutor filed a suit to outlaw the party itself.

With the election days away, Mr. Erdogan, 48, the former mayor of Istanbul, is in any case drawing huge crowds. But he and his party do not promise to Islamicize Turkey Ñ they have, to the contrary, vigorously played down the party's Islamic roots. Instead, the party's appeal lies in its determination to end corruption, to revive the economy and to listen to the plight of ordinary Turks.

If Justice and Development does win the election, the biggest unknown is what role Mr. Erdogan would play in any new government. Under present law, he cannot hold public office because of a past conviction for inciting religious hatred. He has left open the possibility of amending the Constitution to allow himself to be a minister of some stripe.

"It means his intention is to lead the government from behind the scenes and to appoint a weak prime minister," said Ilter Turkmen, a former foreign minister. "What we need is a strong prime minister, a modern prime minister."

But even a behind-the-scenes role for Mr. Erdogan makes some here nervous. Many refuse to dismiss his past. Elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994, he banned alcohol in municipal restaurants, opposed entry into the European Union and supported withdrawing from NATO. "You cannot be secular and a Muslim at the same time," he said in a speech in 1995. "The world's 1.5 billion Muslims are waiting for the Turkish people to rise up. We will rise up."

Source: New York Times